F1 Qualifying Pace 2026: Ferrari Lead Q1, Mercedes Win

Ferrari has the best F1 qualifying pace of 2026 if you measure the first session of Saturday, and it has not turned that into a single pole position. Across the first 17 rounds in GridRaces data, Ferrari's cars were on average 0.337 seconds off the fastest Q1 time, ahead of Mercedes at 0.413. Mercedes then took 11 of the 17 poles and 11 of the 17 wins. Ferrari took none and two. That mismatch is the most interesting thing on the timing sheets.

What does F1 qualifying pace in 2026 look like, team by team?

We measured every driver's Q1 time against the fastest Q1 time of that round, then averaged the gap for each team across the season. Q1 is the only session where all 20-odd cars run for the same purpose, which makes it the fairest single-lap yardstick we have. It is not perfect, and we will get to that.

The shape is a four-team front group and then a cliff. Ferrari (+0.337s), Mercedes (+0.413s), Red Bull (+0.425s) and McLaren (+0.462s) are separated by 0.125 seconds. The next team, the Racing Bulls entry listed as RB F1 Team in our database, is +0.859s. After that comes Alpine at +0.972s, Audi at +1.071s, Haas at +1.251s and Williams at +1.413s. At the bottom, Cadillac (+2.572s) and Aston Martin (+2.594s) sit about two and a half seconds from the benchmark.

Two notes on reading the table. Sample sizes are 31 to 34 driver entries per team, a little under the full 34 for Red Bull, Williams, Haas and Aston Martin because not every driver set a Q1 time in every round. And this is a season average, so one wet or red-flagged session can move a midfield team by a tenth.

Why is Ferrari fastest in Q1 but without a pole?

Here is the sentence worth screenshotting: Ferrari and Mercedes start from almost the same average grid slot, 4.15 and 4.12, and one has eleven wins while the other has two.

The raw Q1 edge says Ferrari can produce a very quick lap when the track is fresh and the pressure is low. The pole count says something different happens when the fight is for the front row. We cannot see from Q1 data alone why. The candidates are Q3 tyre preparation, engine modes, track evolution that favours the car running last, or plain execution under pressure. Treat those as questions, not findings.

What the data does show is that average grid slot hides the real difference. Ferrari's 4.15 and Mercedes' 4.12 sit in the same place, but Mercedes' includes eleven poles and Ferrari's includes none. Qualifying second, third and fourth every week is a good Saturday. It is not a winning one.

Hamilton's pole in Mexico City on 31 October 2026, by 0.009 seconds over George Russell according to the official timing, shows Ferrari can close the gap when everything lines up.

Where does Red Bull lose its Saturday speed?

Red Bull has the third-best Q1 gap, +0.425s, and an average grid slot of 7.97. McLaren is slower in Q1 at +0.462s yet starts from an average of 5.32, nearly three places further forward. Something between Q1 and the final grid is costing Red Bull position, while its cars finish at an average of 5.66, so they recover about two places on Sunday.

Our database cannot tell us whether the leak is Q2 and Q3 execution, grid penalties or traffic. It does tell us where to look, and it is a fair warning against ranking teams by one session.

What is the counter-argument?

Q1 is not Q3. Teams run different tyre compounds, different fuel loads and different engine modes in the first session, and the fastest cars often do just enough to progress. A team that sets a real lap in Q1 and a conservative one in Q3 would look very quick here and far less impressive on pole day. So Ferrari's Q1 lead is partly a measure of intent as well as speed.

It is also true that qualifying is only one input to winning. Mercedes' 11 wins also reflect race pace, strategy and reliability, none of which this table measures.

Verdict

Ferrari's single-lap speed is real, and the 0.076-second advantage over Mercedes in Q1 is larger than the gap from Mercedes to Red Bull. But championships and Sundays are decided by what happens in the final session of Saturday, and in that window Mercedes owned the season. The mild optimism for Ferrari is that the Q1 pace exists and Mexico City showed it can become pole. The hard truth is that 17 rounds of GridRaces data still show a team that starts well and does not start first.

Explore the numbers for yourself on the telemetry pages, check where each team stands on the standings page, and read how the format works in our qualifying explainer. More of our work lives in the analysis section, and our look at Ferrari's dead-heat teammates covers the human side of this Ferrari puzzle. If you think Interlagos on 8 November 2026 is where Ferrari finally converts, put your call in on the predictions page.