F1 First Lap 2026: Mercedes Lose Places, Ferrari Gain

Which teams gain places on the F1 first lap in 2026, and which give them away? On GridRaces data for the first 17 rounds, Ferrari gain and Mercedes lose. Ferrari cars improved on their grid slot by the end of lap one in 18 of 34 starts and fell back in only 5. Mercedes cars improved in 5 of 33 starts and fell back in 13. Net: Ferrari +19 places, Mercedes -27, from almost identical average grid positions of 4.1 and 4.2.

How we measured the F1 first lap in 2026

For each driver in rounds 1 to 17 of the 2026 season we subtracted their position at the end of lap one from their starting grid position. A positive number means places gained. We excluded pit-lane starters and any driver without a lap-one timing, and we used the grid as it was actually lined up, penalties included. The caveat is plain: "end of lap one" captures the whole opening lap, not just the launch, so contact, pit-lane entries and track position all land in the same number.

Who gains and who loses on lap one?

Take the front-running drivers, the ones whose average grid slot is sixth or better. The spread is large.

Charles Leclerc has gained 14 places net over 17 starts. Lando Norris is on +7 over 16 starts, Lewis Hamilton on +5 over 17. Max Verstappen is at -2 over 15. Then the Mercedes pair and Oscar Piastri sit at the bottom: Piastri -13 over 15 starts, Andrea Kimi Antonelli -9 over 17, George Russell -18 over 16.

Here is the sentence to screenshot: Leclerc and Russell start from the same average grid slot, 4.1, yet over the season they sit 32 places apart after lap one.

Is it just because Mercedes start at the front?

That is the best counter-argument, and part of it is true. Antonelli and Russell have started 11 of the 17 races from pole between them, and you cannot gain places from pole. Mercedes started 21 of their 33 races from the top three; Ferrari did so 14 times out of 34. So we split the data by where the cars lined up.

From fourth or lower on the grid, the gap shrinks sharply. Ferrari gained 16 places net over 20 starts (12 gained, 2 lost). Mercedes lost 5 net over 12 starts (4 gained, 2 lost). That is a real difference, but a small sample.

From the top three, it opens up. Ferrari cars are +3 net over 14 starts (6 gained, 3 lost). Mercedes cars are -22 net over 21 starts: they gained once and lost places 11 times. Even allowing for the fact that front-row cars have only one direction to travel, 11 losses in 21 starts is a pattern, not noise.

One outlier deserves honesty. Russell's Hungarian Grand Prix has him at 19th on lap one after starting sixth; he finished seventh. Take that race out and Mercedes' net drops from -27 to -14, which is still the worst of the four leading teams.

What does the lap-one gap cost Mercedes?

Less than it looks like. Antonelli started the Japanese Grand Prix on pole, was sixth at the end of lap one, and still won. He started second in Australia, was seventh after lap one, and finished second. Mercedes' race pace has been good enough to turn lap-one losses back into results, which is a nice problem to have and also an expensive habit.

The risk is the circuit. Austin has a steep climb into a tight Turn 1, and every car arrives there at once. A Ferrari next to a Mercedes on the front rows would pair two very different start records. We are not predicting contact; we are noting that one team has a spreadsheet of places gained and the other has a spreadsheet of places given back. Our look at why COTA punishes the new cars covers the other half of that story.

What should you watch for at the Austin start?

Watch the Ferraris if they start fourth or lower: from there they have gained 16 places net over 20 starts, losing places only twice. Then watch the Mercedes if they start in the top three: that is where they have lost 22 places net over 21 starts. If Saturday's qualifying puts a Ferrari behind a Mercedes, the history says the order may be reversed by the end of lap one. It is a tendency, not a law, and Austin's first corner has never read the spreadsheet.

Verdict: Ferrari win the start, Mercedes win the race

Our thesis is simple. (Mercedes drivers have also won 11 of the 17 races, which is why the heading is not a typo.) Ferrari are the best starters of the leading four teams in 2026, Mercedes the worst, and the gap is large enough to survive the "they start on pole" defence. Whether it matters on Sunday depends on whether the Mercedes cars qualify high enough to be exposed, or Ferrari high enough to attack. You can follow that fight position by position in Telemetry, replay the starts in the 3D viewer and check the championship standings for what Sunday could settle. Then make your own call in the Austin predictions: which car leads into Turn 1?